In 2024, the domestic steel supply will still exceed demand. In addition, affected by the downturn in the real estate industry, domestic demand has decreased, and steel prices have fallen compared with the same period last year. In order to seek profits, steel mills have reduced prices and expanded exports. In addition, the RMB exchange rate is at a low level, and my country's steel export price advantage is obvious. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the monthly export volume of galvanized coils in 2024 exceeded that of the same period last year, and the export volume in September reached the current maximum of 1.7758 million tons.

The overall trend of galvanized sheet coils in 2024 showed an initial decline and then an increase. The price remained at a high level at the beginning of the year, and then gradually declined in the first half of the year, reaching the lowest point in the third quarter. After entering the fourth quarter, the price began to rebound significantly. The price fluctuations throughout the year were large, reflecting that after the market mismatched supply and demand, even if there was stimulus from macro policy news, it was difficult for spot market prices to have sustained upward momentum. Specifically, in the first quarter of 2024, the overall price of galvanized coils showed a fluctuating upward trend. The price at the beginning of the year was 5,113 yuan/ton, and then fluctuated and rose to 5,115 yuan/ton in January, reaching a high point during the year. Entering February, the price remained relatively stable at around 5,077 yuan/ton. In March, the price began to gradually decline, from 5,048 yuan/ton to 4,978 yuan/ton. Price fluctuations at this stage are mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday and post-holiday resumption of work. Market demand gradually recovers, but supply is relatively sufficient, resulting in relatively small price fluctuations. In the second quarter, the price of galvanized coils continued to decline following the black futures market. The main reason for the price decline at this stage was weak market demand, slow recovery of orders from downstream companies, and inventory backlog, resulting in market oversupply.

In the third quarter of the second half of the year, the price of galvanized coils continued to hover at a low level, and the decline accelerated. At the end of the third quarter, the price was 4,083 yuan/ton. The continued decline in prices at this stage is mainly affected by insufficient market demand and oversupply, especially the regulation of the real estate market and the reduction of export orders, which further intensifies market pressure. In the fourth quarter, galvanized sheet coil prices began to recover significantly after hitting the bottom in September. In early October, the price was 4,120 yuan/ton. With the end of the 7-day National Day golden holiday, the market price continued to rise, rising to 4,474 yuan/ton. The rebound in prices at this stage is mainly due to a series of measures introduced by the state to stabilize growth, as well as the arrival of the traditional peak season at the end of the year, which has led to a recovery in market demand. However, as the market price was driven up too fast by the emotional level, the actual transaction demand failed to keep up, and the price began to fall back. As of November 15, the market price fell back to 4,144 yuan/ton.